The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic

Two studies in Nature estimate the benefits of various nonpharmaceutical interventions to help control COVID-19. In the first, researchers examine the effects of over 1700 policies — such as travel restrictions, school closures, and quarantine of positive cases — across China, France, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and the United States. Using statistical modeling, they estimate that the policies prevented 62 million confirmed infections — or roughly 530 million total infections — across the six countries. In the second study, researchers estimate that 3.2–4.0% of the populations of 11 European countries have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. They conclude that nonpharmaceutical interventions — especially lockdowns — markedly kept the numbers down and suggest that “continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.”

Study on intervention in Europe in Nature

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf